Water Under Siege

Water Under Siege

Summary. In October last year, the Afghan Taliban leadership decided unilaterally to construct dams on the Kunar and Kabul rivers, raising serious concerns in Pakistan.  This announcement came just weeks after India's unilateral and illegal suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, raising alarm bells in Islamabad. These moves signal a deeply troubling phase in Pakistan's water security, as the country's economy depends on the agriculture sector, whose very survival depends on water. Pakistan has long sought a water-sharing framework with Kabul; none has materialized. Kabul's announcement to “begin construction as soon as possible” asserts sovereign right but intensifies Pakistan's water insecurity. To counter this growing challenge, Pakistan should adopt a strategy that emphasises regional hydro cooperation by securing predictable downstream flows, limiting India's geopolitical encroachment, strengthening its international standing as a responsible riparian, and transforming the Kabul River from a security liability into a platform for regional stability and shared prosperity.

Freshwater resources remain a globally threatened renewable resource despite being fundamental to an extensive range of essential ecological and societal activities – from agriculture to hydropower generation, industrial expansion and waste disposal. Freshwater resources are bounded within river basins which are often distributed across political, ethnic and cultural borders, which can give rise to intense hydro-­political disputes. One such case is that of Afghanistan and Pakistan, as the two countries share nine river basins within the broader Indus River system. However, drawing inspiration from India's incorporation of a climate and water dimension into its conflict with Pakistan, the Afghan Taliban leadership announced plans to construct dams on the Kunar and Kabul rivers.

As Afghanistan announced its dam construction plans, concerns in Pakistan are resurfacing over the absence of a formal water-sharing framework between the two neighbours. As climate change intensifies glacier melting and makes rainfalls increasingly unpredictable, such controversial steps will further intensify tensions between them.

From Kabul's perspective, these projects are acts of sovereignty — an attempt to secure energy, food and water for a population still recovering from decades of war. Current Afghan water usage from shared rivers stands at only 1.8 MAF, projected to double to 3.6 MAF by 2030. As a landlocked and mainly agrarian country, it is not only inevitable but necessary to tap into its natural resources. Yet from a downstream lens, unilateral action in the absence of coordination risks destabilizing an already delicate ecological as well as political balance.

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