One of the defining dilemmas of the first quarter of the twenty-first century is that humanity is experiencing extraordinary technological progress. But, at the same time, growing geopolitical instability and existential risks are jeopardizing world peace. One of the most critical questions at the moment is: how societies can benefit from transformative technologies—particularly artificial intelligence, advanced microbiology and nuclear systems—while preventing catastrophe and building a structurally safer world.
The first quarter of the 21st century has witnessed dramatic technological progress as well as geopolitical upheaval. Many countries are facing wars or internal conflicts and the use of modern weaponry and new technological tools has made matters further precarious. However, our longing for peace can never die down. So, how can we benefit from the promise of technology, keeping in view the nature and capabilities of modern weapons, while minimizing the risks of catastrophe and creating a safer world? This piece articulates a positive, cooperative vision for such a world, with an actionable policy agenda intended for nations, multilateral organizations and non-state actors.
Main Threats
The world, at present, is facing many dangers and threats which stem from three intersecting trends.
1. Great-power rivalry has returned with intensity, reviving the risk of interstate war amid unresolved territorial conflicts that could escalate rapidly, e.g. Israel-Palestine, Israel-Iran, Pakistan-India, Thailand-Cambodia.
2. Intrastate conflicts, as in Sudan, Libya, Ethiopia, Yemen and others, and a growing authoritarianism in many African and Asian countries, as well as the rise of rightwing in Europe
3. Advanced technologies have reached a level of power and accessibility that makes their misuse—by states or nonstate actors—potentially catastrophic for human civilization.
These trends amplify each other: geopolitical rivalry discourages cooperation on managing technological risks, while dangerous technologies raise the stakes of geopolitical conflict to unprecedented levels.
Although many believe that technological progress will naturally produce positive outcomes for humanity, things are not as simple. All this progress comes with huge dangers. New technological advances in fields like microbiology and AI potentially offer enormous progress and risks. On balance, they offer hope for a wealthier and, therefore, a more peaceful world since the world's more prosperous and democratic nations have generally learned how not to fight each other since 1945. However, there is a countervailing possibility: that rising powers could turn their increasing wealth and resources into military strength, and then assertively employ that military muscle.
Moreover, in the wrong hands, or in the wrong context, the new technologies could be very dangerous and hard to control. The combination of AI with advanced microbiology could threaten a new form of “mutually assured destruction,” adding to the dangers that nuclear weapons brought to the world (even as they delivered benefits by deterring war). AI already introduces risks from disinformation, deepfakes and advanced cyberattacks, but it could be used by criminals and other nefarious actors to harm individuals, devise war strategies, create swarms of networked, autonomous offensive robotic devices or destroy critical national infrastructure with cyberattacks. Modern microbiology could be used to engineer diseases like COVID-19, or worse, a combination of highly contagious and highly lethal characteristics. AI might assist in the development of such diseases, bringing two signature 21st-century technologies into an unholy alliance. Notably, a superintelligent yet badly regulated AI might even try to hoodwink a rogue human actor to produce and then unleash an unprecedentedly lethal virus. The risks are many and growing.
These technologies could be used independently, or in combination, to produce mass destruction on a scale rivalling or exceeding nuclear weapons. Territorial disputes—such as those involving Taiwan, Ukraine, Kashmir and the Middle East—remain especially dangerous because even conflicts over limited stakes can escalate into existential wars, as history has repeatedly demonstrated.
Building on this foundation, there can be four mutually reinforcing pillars of global policy.
1. Addressing major territorial disputes in strategically crucial regions
Although interstate war is less common than in the past, unresolved grievances in places such as Taiwan, Ukraine, Kashmir and the Middle East continue to fuel nationalism, violence and mistrust. These disputes hinder cooperation on global challenges and incentivize the weaponization of new technologies. While resolving such conflicts is extraordinarily difficult, coordinated international mediation and creative approaches to sovereignty and security could reduce risks over time.
2. Reducing dangers from new and emerging technologies
Regulating AI and biotechnology is particularly challenging due to verification difficulties and the dual-use nature of these technologies. Nonetheless, innovative approaches—such as monitoring access to sensitive tools, societal oversight and using AI to detect illicit activities—offer promise. At the same time, safeguards must be implemented to protect privacy and civil liberties.
3. Assertively tackling other transnational dangers
The third pillar focuses on transnational threats including climate change, pandemics, environmental degradation and urban vulnerability. As global energy trends suggest worsening climate change, the challenge lies in managing its impacts rather than reversing it. Geoengineering may eventually be required, but only with strong international cooperation and consensus to avoid unilateral actions that could harm others. Pandemics are unavoidable in an interconnected world and demand collective efforts in early warning systems, vaccine development and public health infrastructure. Additionally, localized civil conflicts can trigger wider global consequences, making diplomacy, cooperation and peacekeeping essential tools for mitigating their effects.
4. Promoting human dignity and well-being around the world
The fourth pillar emphasizes promoting human dignity, reducing poverty and improving governance worldwide. These goals are moral imperatives but also strategic necessities. Poverty and weak institutions are closely linked to conflict and violence. While aid is not always effective, evidence shows that well-targeted assistance—particularly in health, agriculture and direct cash transfers—can significantly reduce poverty and improve stability.
Conclusion
The international community, consumed by immediate rivalries and problems, needs a greater collective sense of urgency in addressing the root causes of current and future conflict, as well as other dangers. Policymakers understandably fixated on the short term in today's turbulent world must nevertheless ensure that long-term risks have a place at the table. A safer world will not emerge from rivalry alone but from a combination of deterrence, cooperation, conflict resolution, technological governance and a shared commitment to human dignity. The agenda outlined is ambitious but realistic, aiming not for perfect harmony but for managing and mitigating the most dangerous threats. Given the accelerating risks of the twenty-first century, now—not later—is the time to act.
The writer is a London-based academic.
