From Thucydides Trap to strategic sequencing

The so-called Thucydides Trap has become a staple of foreign policy commentary over the past decade or so, regularly invoked to frame the escalating rivalry between the United States and China. This phrase, coined by political scientist Graham Allison — first in a 2012 Financial Times article and later developed in his 2017 book “Destined for War” – means that when a rising power challenges an established one, war becomes highly probable. Conflict may arise either through preventive war—as the dominant power seeks to halt the challenger's ascent—or through uncontrolled escalation and miscalculation.

This theory aptly depicts the situation of the current international order that is moving towards a great showdown between China and the United States – the former is a rising power that is increasingly challenging the latter which is the ruling power. As contemporary rivals, the two powers echo historical patterns of major competition between an emerging power that threatens to displace the existing great power.

Realist theory tells us that actors in the international system tend to form countervailing coalitions when one power begins to accumulate too much influence. Because the system lacks a central authority, what realists describe as an anarchic structure, states feel compelled to balance against rising power. In international relations literature, this behavior is known as “balancing.”